tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5104479.post115910088593391859..comments2023-05-27T23:20:32.194+10:00Comments on Marco's Blog: Self-defeating predictionMarco Parigihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5104479.post-79012704352819683452008-05-07T16:23:00.000+10:002008-05-07T16:23:00.000+10:00Today is 7 May 2008.Given that the price is alread...Today is 7 May 2008.<BR/><BR/>Given that the price is already in the $1.40 to $1.50 range and the price of oil has tipped US$120/barrel, I'd say that the alarmists win.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5104479.post-1159493443098837002006-09-29T11:30:00.000+10:002006-09-29T11:30:00.000+10:00I have thought about that, but the financial instr...I have thought about that, but the financial instruments required to making money on longer term or demographic stagnation principles are not easily accessible, compared to say, buying stock that you know is going to rise. I would like to look for stocks that would benefit from long term lower prices, like transport stocks etc.Marco Parigihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5104479.post-1159146227637905802006-09-25T11:03:00.000+10:002006-09-25T11:03:00.000+10:00Yes, and there is parallels in many developed and ...Yes, and there is parallels in many developed and tigerish economies since the second world war. Japan is a case in point with stagnation coinciding with the end of the demographic one off. Also more recently, Ireland has reached the end of its demographic one off and will struggle to sustain any growth rates at all. Countries in which it will be less noticeable are ones that have had more consistent birth and death rates (or only very gradual transitions to an ageing population)Marco Parigihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5104479.post-1159136862626039492006-09-25T08:27:00.000+10:002006-09-25T08:27:00.000+10:00The dependency ratio is at an all time low because...The dependency ratio is at an all time low because of low numbers of children but the old folks not old enough to be dependent yet, correct?Dr Clamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14985493422534275997noreply@blogger.com