Survival strategies

Evidence 1 :- A plant's seed whose pod can float in water for months, lies dormant for years until conditions that are just right precipitate germination. To a scientist, it is evidence of survival strategy. A plant can colonise a new area far away from its original base.

Evidence 2 :- A bacterium or other organism can withstand being frozen in a vacuum indefinitely until jolted back into life when it hits, say a planet. To a scientist this is irrelevant detail and doesn't indicate that certain bacteria have evolved this feature so they can go planet-hopping when major collisions happen.

Origins of life on Earth

I find this Economist article on the Origins of life a fair bit presumptuous. One critical assumption is that no frozen or otherwise DNA infected organisms existed amongst the rocks, dust and gases of the solar system to begin with. This leaves the problem of how DNA originated to some other environment much more conducive perhaps. The only other questions remains on how DNA spread to our solar system and otherwise around our galaxy. This I find more easily explainable than the hodgepodge of theories of how "breakout" happened. And again I see this background of subliminal thinking of having to move "up" from ooze to amino acids to proteins to RNA to DNA etc. as another ladder rather than a "bush". Other non-life chemicals formed will surely have an influence on the life there.

Just as I was talking about democracy and Islam

The Economist comes up with this article regarding democracy and Islam. Needless to say, I was just saying that.

The point is, I believe it much more likely that a "Pax Islam" will come about via the back door as a treaty between democratic Islamic based countries rather than the front door of Iran's theocracy taking the lead and other nearby countries making some kind of islamic (Warsaw like) pact to be part of an expanded theocracy.

Ha.. Ha.. - Hamas

Does the election of Hamas make a difference to peace prospects in Israel? My answer - No. What is happening in Syria and Iran is a lot more relevant as they still control the "spoiler" influence on Palestine. Israel and Palestine could be led by the dalai llama and it wouldn't make a difference. However, Palestine and Israel are part of this democratic pincer movement I have been theorising, that is isolating and surrounding Iran and Syria.

The battles to entrench democracy in the middle east is real "war" all the rest is bluff, bluster, isolated sacrifices, posturing, marginal threats and zealous journalism.

Deep in the Weeds

There has been blanket advertising on TV up here in Townsville of an emerging weed threat of Mimosa Pigra. I have realised that this weed has been gradually spreading around my "lawn" (more like a meadow, the way I maintain it) since late 1998. Presumably the seeds from these would have washed their way downstream towards the river. Asking around, this plant has been around Townsville in various patches for decades. I just wonder if we are already too late?


Mimosa flowers, normally pink - turned yellow by the highly alkaline clay soil in my front yard.
leaves before being touched
Touch-sensitive leaves now tucked away.










Note that these plants develop nasty thorns, and can grow into inpenetrable thickets metres high. They love our tropical climate, and have already laid claim to large swathes of the Northern Territory (more than NT's aboriginals :-)) In fact they should be renamed "Old man death"

Because Geologists and miners should be environ-mental-ly conscious

This was taken from a 1998 Readers digest "joke" as in things that you will never see on a t-shirt! It works well in my skeptically environmentalist way.

This link to bid or buy now for your own shirt!

What "ought" to be done about Townsville's heat

There was this great research and pilot scheme done for a system of taking cold waters from the deep (4 degrees C) and using the temperature differential with shallow tropical water to generate electricity. The pilot scheme (in Hawaii) showed reasonable effectiveness in generating electricity, but also a great many other uses for the cold water. For instance, pumping cold water through underground pipes under crops to improve their productivity, and using the cold water for air-conditioning. My "scheme" for Townsville would be a simple heat exchange for the water already being pumped to all the houses. The salt water would cool a hunk of metal, and the purified dam water would be cooled significantly by the metal, and the cold water being distributed to the whole city would cool everything down. The main problem with Townsville as I understand it is that there is no deep water nearby. The water would have to be piped in from a hundred kilometers away. This shouldn't really be a problem though - we are piping in gas from further than that for electrical generation. Once the initial "cold water" scheme is shown to be successful, all sorts of applications will become obvious, as well as generating electricity. And the considerable advantage over electrical air-conditioning is that there is a net reduction in heat.

"Darwinism" as a staircase

The front cover of the economist christmas edition shows the classical subliminal message that human evolution is about progress up the ladder (staircase in this case). Although the actual article does rail against the popular concept of "survival of the fittest" because it completely mis-states the reality; it does mention such things as "progress", "great leap forward" as scientific concepts of what was happening at various stages. Genetic palaentology has been able to put accurate dates on common ancestry, which is really illuminating. Great science is happening, but darwinism as a popular ideology doesn't require it. To remain popular, Darwinism must still place humans on a pedestal above other living things. This is to replace the "specialness" that is given to humans in various religions. Because, in general, Darwinists profess to be non-religious, why should they care what happens to the human race if we are not special or superior to animals?

We shouldn't just scowl - we should also laugh at their folly

The continual refusal of the EU to reform its Common Agricultural Policy(CAP) has been widely cited as helping itself, at the expense of third world farmers. But the truth is, they are doing even more damage to their own economies than they do to third world countries. By failing to keep their own agricultural industries competitive, they have given free reign to Brazil and Australia (for example) on even products such as olive oil and wine. The truth is they can't afford to protect everything they hold dear for ever, and as each new niche presents itself in agriculture, they will be stuck making boring commodities at high cost, missing every possible new product and even variations on the commodities due to their regulated regime. In fact, the longer they persist in lavish subsidies, the lower the percentage of agricultural products that will have distorted markets. The inevitable demographic time bomb will mean that due to all of the pensions/aged health care increased costs, they just won't be able to afford the costs of the CAP for too much longer. I sniggered when the EU accused the Australian Wheat Board (AWB)of monopoly power abuse etc. The truth is that EU's subsidised wheat can't compete with Australia's unsubsidised Wheat especially when quality and service is factored in. EU took the opportunity now that the sugar price is high to reduce its subsidies on that commodity. They should have given up on sugar long ago anyway. I figure they will start to see the light too late to keep competitiveness in any of their remaining agricultural exports. I laugh at their folly, and us Australians should say "Thanks EU! You've made it so much easier for us." The lesson is - If a country, whether third world or first world wants to export agricultural products, reduce its subsidies especially on those products (instead use money to compensate struggling or exiting farmers), reduce tariffs on everything possible, and let the market do the hard work of allocating money correctly.

My "vision" for the future "Pax Islam"

Preamble
This is more prediction than what I believe ought to happen or be made to happen. It is based on my theory that the net effect of people acting selfishly is fairly immune to "brute force" courses of action which try to change the world. It is also resistant to "self-fulfilling prophecies" and self-defeating ones, where the prediction itself can change the course of history. That is only because nobody will actually take much notice of my predictions due to my lack of qualifications in this regard.

The predictions are based on my own "thought experiments" based on elements of game theory and the political dynamics, at least the bits which show a non-random pattern. The initial precept is that Israel-Palestine will not reach lasting peace until Iran and Syria stop financing terror against Israel. This will not stop until these countries become democratic and peace-loving. Therefore, a lasting peace treaty there will be the last thing to happen in my prediction. I foresee "Pax Islam" not as a threat or a country swallowing monster, but as just another multi-country institution competing with all the others. If the constituent countries are all democratic. Israel will no longer be besieged.




This is my rough outline of order of significant events.
1) Presidents of democratic Iraq and Afghanistan sign a "peace and co-operation" agreement.
2) Popular revolt in Iran overthrows the council of clerics - a new constitution is drafted and voted for in a referendum - replacing Shi ite doctrine with more generalised mandate to not make laws contrary to Islam.
3) Syria becomes democratic in a process which involves incalculable casualties.
4) Iran's new president signs on its country to the "peace and co-operation" treaty, and gives it a name - say "Pan-Islam peace and free trade treaty" renamed to "Pax Islam" for short - you heard it here first.
5) Saudi Arabian royal family, under pressure from their population, re-writes constitution to allow democratic progress, then step down as supreme leaders.
6) With most surrounding Islamic countries now democratic, a US sponsored peace treaty in Israel becomes not only realistic, but guaranteed.

I Love Christmas

What I really hate is any combination of hot humid weather, drippy airconditioners, excessive family reunions, no money, bad business conditions, my house cluttered with little toys, cleaning up after parties, high electricity bills, not having back to school stock ready in time and people whinging about me being so negative.

Non-scientific medicine and healing

I am a little ambivalent about doctors at the best of times. To me there is a yawning gap between the assumption or theory of doctors using science to give every patient the best chance of healing and health, and the reality where for 99% of patients, scientific method has nothing to do with either typical or best possible results. That brings me to my thoughts on say, accupuncture, which has been practised for centuries (millenia?) before any scientific work was done on it. This goes for all mainland provinces medicine, I guess. Whatever the actual benefits of accupuncture, I don't think it has much to do with Yin and Yang energy flows. Just because it isn't scientific, doesn't necessarily mean practitioners are loopy, nor that we can generalise from any particular case that they are proven wrong to say that they always are, or even that they are more often wrong than are non-mainland provinces medicine. The placebo effect is a mighty powerful thing sometimes. It is way stronger when there is complete trust of the practitioner by the patient. What is my point here - Healing is often an art form rather than a science. I may therefore trust an experienced healer without a university degree, more than an inexperienced doctor with a degree. But if it is about advice, I trust my own research on the internet more than any professional's advice about anything to do with health.

When BIG FEAR is over

Anonymous said...
When CHEAP OIL is over, Forecast to start in 2008, we will see a world wide depression, see http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
When this occurs the FULL force of the Laws will occur.
Unfortunetly, I do believe the Labour Party will gain control of both Houses of the Federal Parliment in the next election. If they do, that will be excellent. If they don't, we will have the Laws for a LONG time. So, we MUST find new innovative ways to make the IR Laws in operative. Can anyone make a CONSTRUCIVE suggestion.

This was a reply to my unfair dismissal entry of long ago, referenced due to the new IR laws coming in. As far as cheap oil is concerned, I confidently predict a fragmentation of the market, absolutely no economic depression, but a gradual uptake of competing alternatives to oil. I also confidently predict that the good effects of these IR laws will become obvious by the next election, meaning Labor might not even get in. The fear will evaporate with the pre-election optimistic vote-buying goodies always on offer on election years. These are my dated and confident predictions, fearmongering will recommence after the next election :-).

What on earth did I mean by Pax Islam

I had mentioned "pax Islam" in the context of various multi-country groupings or organisations, that I felt would compete yet coexist with UN, NATO, EU etc. in the near future until the next world war in a few centuries time. When the new Afghani constitution was first posted in english on the net, I had a quick read to see what they had to say about separation of "church" and state. Not unexpectedly, the very first line states that no law under the constitution is to be contrary to the law of Islam. That got me thinking that the Iraqi constitution is bound to have something similar, and that therefore three adjacent countries would have national laws under the overall umbrella of Islam - caliphate style (Of course without the "Caliph" for the moment). Of course, Mohammed would be the ultimate interpreter of the scriptures as to how they apply in the modern world, but he's dead. Without a central governing structure to Islam, this makes for a difficult balance of power between various religious officials and elected politicians, but perhaps time will tell whether that will matter. I don't see much chance of anything much like US's evolution of churches, given that religious freedoms are restricted, and Imam's get a say in public policy somewhat.

Another gem - game theory and democracy

This clipped article, People Power is a book review on a book which studies the formation of democracies. It perhaps elucidates my various thoughts on game theory and democracy, that I've gone on about from time to time (separately).

Invisible hands - the point

The net result of individuals selfishly pursuing self interest can make society "better". That is Adam Smith's economic tenet. In theory, greed should instead cause a lot of exploitative and abuse of power kind of behaviour. Economic structures such as competition policy, free trade, property law tend to lessen exploitative behaviour because it becomes less profitable. Dr Clam is theorising that because "voters" pursue selfish interests, the greater good can't be served. He also says that because we don't vote daily, the competitive pursuit of votes doesn't have a day to day influence on government policy. On both counts, my point is that economic and democratic process policies, have indirect effects far greater than the direct effects of any one mandate or another. These are somewhat measurable by experts, and many of the indirect effects are counter-intuitive.

Invisible hands - another try

The "invisible hand" concept I am trying to illucidate I believe can simplify complex topics. So I am stating some examples of how visible cause and effect is often countered and is weaker than the much less visible but stronger indirect cause and effects.

Unfair dismissal legislation - direct (visible hand) effect - Employer sacks or lays off staff whenever needed increasing unemployment rate.
Indirect (invisible hand) effect - Unfair dismissal legislation scares the bijeepers out of employers and they underemploy increasing unemployment rate. Careful studies show that the indirect effects have significantly more influence to the unemployment rate than the direct effects.

Unilaterally lowering trade barriers - direct effects - increase in imports, decrease in exports = worse balance of payments.

indirect effects - medium term self balancing of trade - cheaper and wider variety of goods to population. Increased scope of competition.

Supernanny style family analysis will become compulsory

Or at least it should. So many family problems that end up being family breakers or worse, can be nipped in the bud by a few weeks of analysis and training of the parents by experienced "nannies". The excerpts from the show seem extreme, but they are extremely common problems. Each family is a special case, and all parents have gaps in the understanding of the potential solutions. This is why watching the show isn't really enough. The three week program just has to be gone through for maximal society benefit.

Pod-sibling ebay link

Pod Sibling t-shirts available on THIS LINK.

My pod-sibling went to Earth and all I got was this lousy human host

I have managed to manufacture 30 of these in sizes M to XXL, and I will be posting them on ebay on THIS LINK. Some will be on auction, some at fixed price (maybe $15) any remaining will still be auctioned before Christmas (My guess is that the last ones may end up fetching the most)