I think it is quite clear that Assange is a high value person of interest in the legal sense. Usually, when sexual assault is the crime which is of interest, high value is when the alleged sexual assaults involve violence, predation and notoriety. This is not the reason in this case, but the full extent of the international legal tools at disposal are being used within proper discretionary limits. Also with his defense against these legal tools, Assange is using all legal tools properly at his discretion.
While the current standoff continues, Assange is, in a reduced but still powerful way, able to continue to lead Wikileaks, and the Syria files proves that the organization is still functionally sourcing and publishing leaks. Client states of the US which were nasty dictatorships have the most to lose with these leaks. Of course, the US also likely loses them as a client states as well, which may or may not be a bad thing for the West.
As far as the risk to "informants" goes which is a highly publicized issue, I think it is a fairly long bow to draw. The war(s) are grinding ones of attrition and a large scale leaks makes both sides extremely jumpy, because they have the same access to the same information, with enough of it with parts deleted or changed that they cannot be be confident of exactly who is the informant. Most terrorists just make a wholesale slaughter of all possible informants, quite regularly.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Asylum Seeker
Whistleblowers, traditionally are given the shaft, and I accept that it is part of life that if you transmit verifiable conspiratorial information to the public domain, you are vulnerable to the wrath of powerful forces that may be available to the parties of the conspiracy.
This is different to information that is secretly passed or sold to the enemy in their private domain. This is the principal difference between whistle blowing and treason. Sure, if you have access to some confidential or secret information, you can sit on it, publish it or sell it secretly.
Either way, with the situation in progress under way in London, it resembles more a diplomatic game of chess than a series of past and possible future court cases. It is even plausible that some parties are playing to lose. People that had put up bail, seemed quite content in losing it, and the British may be playing to lose now. It would be face saving if diplomatic priorities means that Assange would require safe passage to Ecuador to avoid setting a dangerous diplomatic precedent.
This is different to information that is secretly passed or sold to the enemy in their private domain. This is the principal difference between whistle blowing and treason. Sure, if you have access to some confidential or secret information, you can sit on it, publish it or sell it secretly.
Either way, with the situation in progress under way in London, it resembles more a diplomatic game of chess than a series of past and possible future court cases. It is even plausible that some parties are playing to lose. People that had put up bail, seemed quite content in losing it, and the British may be playing to lose now. It would be face saving if diplomatic priorities means that Assange would require safe passage to Ecuador to avoid setting a dangerous diplomatic precedent.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Life Lessons From the Better Half
Life Lessons from the Pandemonious Parigi Palace.
1. I keep hearing things about how you shouldn't eat or drink, or put on make up while driving the car, because it's too much of a distraction. I could eat, drink and put on make up, all at the same time while driving the car, and it would be less distracting that having 3 kids in the back.
2. When a plaintive voice from behind the drivers seat says "Mummy, I made splashyou!", you need to say "God Bless You". And just be thankful that this time she didn't actually splash you.
3. The Lalaloopsy dolls now come in 2 packs, with a big sister and a little sister, we know this because we saw them in the shops. Apparently they are "Just like Abi and Mieki". I know this because Abi told me, and I guess she is right, apart from the pink/purple/orange/blue hair.
4. When Daddy is preparing to change a nappy, and the 18mo who rarely uses actual words, is laying on the change table very clearly saying, "It's baaaad", take her word for it. And that is why it's Daddy's turn to change the nappies on the weekend.
5. When 5 o'clock comes, and the bus drives away with the almost 13yo, who has driven you crazy for the last 3 days shopping and packing for a Music Tour to Brisvegas, you can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that if anything is forgotton now she will just have to do without it, or the teachers will have to sort it out. That is, you can if you are the Mummy who now has a week of peace before all the dirty washing comes home. If you are the Daddy however, who suffers from seperation anxiety, you can now prepare to torment your wife by being stressed and miserable for the next 7 days, for NO GOOD REASON. Learn to let go a bit so your kids can have a life, and get one of your own in the process. Besides, there are 5 other kids in the house you can lavish you attention on.
Unlike · · 16 June at 20:26 ·
1. As torturous as shopping and packing for your 13yo to go to Brisbane for a week is, it is far worse to go through it with a 19yo with the flu going to Thredbo for 10 days. It will probably take me 10 days to recover from the ordeal.
2. As much fun as it has been to tease Marco about his separation anxiety from Felicia, he can expect even less sympathy if he is missing Belinda. I plan to enjoy the next 10 days without an adult child tormenting her younger siblings until they scream and wake the baby, blaming her parents for every imaginable thing, (including the fact that Ray's Outdoors advertise thermal underwear as up to 60% off, but don't give the actual price, because I obviously have control of that), and either manipulating, sweet talking or just plain whinging to get other people to pay for everything for her.
3. If you tell your cardiologist that you are a poor uni student, with 5 younger siblings who sap your parents dry of all the money they should have kept to spend on you, and can't afford to come for a follow up test, he will not only offer to do the test "for gratis", he will also bulk bill you for the current appointment.
4. Gen Y's do not know what "for gratis" means, and getting them to shut up while they're ahead, without actually explaining it in front of the doctor or his receptionist is not that easy. Somewhere along the line I have failed as a parent, because "the look" does not work on my first born.
5. The scariest thing about taking your child for tests with a heart specialist, is the thought that he will discover that she doesn't have one. Turns out she does, and for the past week she has just been using it for pumping blood, and not much else. Here's hoping a holiday in the snow will thaw her out a bit.
Unlike · · 22 June at 23:00 ·
1. When you can't find Tamieka, who is small, so easy to lose, she will always be in the last place you look. According to Marco this is because once you find her, you stop looking. It's not really true though. Once you find her, you go looking for the trail of destruction she has left in her wake.
2. If you want to get flowers for the garden, tell your husband that you want to go to Bunnings to get herbs to plant. It fits in with the Food Nazi code of conduct. You will have to buy herbs as well, just so that you can slip the flower seedlings in between them so he doesn't notice just how many you have. And if all else fails, tell him they have edible flowers. Just be careful not to buy any poisonous ones. He may feed them to the kids. (That might explain all the throwing up.)
3. Some people might think that I have an excessive amount of cot/toddler bed sheets, if they knew how many I had. But if they had been here last night and today, when four seperate lots of bedding went into the wash, from two tiny people throwing up on them, they would not begrudge me my extra sheets, or blankets, or cloth nappies.
4. You know your teenage son doesn't get further away from his bedroom than the bathroom or the fridge during school holidays, when he's going to his friends for an all day and night computer game marathon (broken only by a few hours at lazer tag in the middle), and as he walks past the front garden bed that you just spent the whole weekend weeding and replanting, asks "Did you go on a weed masacre or something?".
5. Morning people are strange creatures. Getting up at 6am to start work at 7, is not that fun. Especially in June. I just don't understand why some people get up this early just because they like it, and say it's the best time of the day. It's cold and dark and normal people just want to be in bed sleeping. I'm going to write to the tax office and ask them to change the end of the financial year to September. It won't clash with Christmas, it won't be in winter, and it won't feel so awful when I have to get up early to do PAYG statements.
Like · · 25 June at 22:58 ·
1. If Dad is home, it is his duty to help Abi go to the toilet. It doesn't matter that she can do it herself, and does when he's not here. When she says "Dad, come on", he'd just better come. And as soon as she is on the toilet, he should "Get out and shut the door, Dad".
2. In desperation at being told to hurry up and drive, when stopped at red lights, Mummy taught Abi all about red lights and green lights, and policemen and jail. When Dad is driving now, and goes through orange lights, "NO DAD, you have to STOP! You need to wait for the green light to go. You are so naughty Dad, you didn't wait for the green light!"
3. When Tamieka gets her head stuck in the arm of the chair, you shouldn't pull her out and say "Oh you poor thing." "She's not a THING Dad, she's a Mieka! Don't call her a thing."
4. When Dad has a headache, a cat or dinosaur sticker on his forehead will fix it. Stangely it seems to work. Makes me think Marco is either secretly taking anelgesics, or was just faking the headache for sympathy. Either sympathy or he thinks he looks good with a kids sticker on his forehead.
5. And for the greatest wisdom of all, when the Food Nazi is trying to make you feel guilty for eating ice-cream, and tells you that he will be so disappointed if you eat it, this is the answer I intend to use in the future. "You won't DIE, Dad.", said in a tone of exasperation meant to infer that she is entirely over his attempts to use emotional blackmail to control her diet.
Unlike · · 1 July at 17:40 ·
1. Parenting is all about bedtime and dire consequences. You spend the morning threatening dire consequences if teenagers don't get out of bed, and the evening(and often well into the night) threatening dire consequences if they don't get back into bed. And I would very much like to know why the parents of the teenagers talking to mine on vent in the middle of the night aren't making their sons go to bed.
2. It would be better if all the kids in the house were either morning people, or night owls. I wouldn't mind getting up a 6am, if I had gotten to bed before 1am. As much as I like school holidays, I look forward to much better sleeping patterns once school restarts.
3. Townsville seems to be having winter with a vengence. I think it must be because all the expats who moved south are coming home for the high school reunion, and bringing the cold weather with them. Just make sure you take it back with you when you leave.
4. Cars should be serviced in summer, not winter. It's not right having to leave the house at 7am when the temperature is 10 degrees. Try to remember this for next year Marco Parigi.
5. I am not a fan of car racing, and would rather watch grass grow than watch cars drive round and round a track to see who goes the fastest. Normally I have "you live your life your way, and I'll live mine" policy, but frankly when a ridiculous sport puts up road blocks over half the CBD, and has ugly buildings erected, which get used one weekend a year, I become less tolerant. If the V8 organisers were to decide that there is a better place to hold their race at the end of the 5 year contract, I would not be unhappy.
Unlike · · 4 July at 18:59 ·
1. We won't need to water the garden for a while, now that the winter monsoons have set in. Those are the monsoons you get without risk of a cyclone, although it has been a bit windy.
2. Men should stop writing lists of instructions on how to be good housewives, or women may start writing lists of instructions on how to be good husbands. They will be headed up "How to be a real Man". That one is for you Jia Zhang.
3. A really good day is the day when your house is reasonably clean (we could stop there and that would do it, but not today), and both your toddlers take a nap at the same time, and so does the uni student on holidays, enabling you to take a nap too. And yes, I've been a mother long enough to know, when miracles happen, go with them.
4. A really bad day is when the fan belt in your dryer breaks, and the kids at one of the highschools started a rumour, which spread like wildfire, that school is cancelled today because of all the rain. Now my reasonably clean house has washing hanging all over it, trying to get dry.
5. Crazy Clarks sell really good, cheap rain guages. Only $2. Don't bother getting one. They don't hold enough rain. I would like to tell you just how much it rained last night, but the rain guage overflowed, so you'll just have to look in up on the net. Or go with my very accurate measurement of "lots".
Unlike · · 10 July at 22:24 ·
1. You know kids these days are growing up too fast when your 3yo rolls her eyes at you, with the same level of skill as your 19yo.
2. You know kids these days have less respect for their elders when your 3yo says "Dad listen to me!" and after Dad says, "ok I'm listening", responds "I told you to SHUT UP DAD!"
3. You know kids these days watch too much TV (or IView in this case), when your 3yo goes around all day snorting, just like Peppa Pig.
4. You know why kids these days have all these character flaws when your listen to the example being set to them by their teenage siblings.
5. You realise that you can forgive them anything when your 3yo and 19mo get up in the morning, and seeing each other for the first time since they were forced apart the night before, throw their arms around each other and start kissing as if they thought they might never see one other again.
Life Lessons from the Pandemonious Parigi Palace. (I've been putting this one off as sometimes you don't want to admit to all the lessons you've needed to learn.)
1. Drinking too much alcohol is bad. It's bad for your liver. Bad for your brain cells. Bad for your blemish free reputation. It may however be good for your husbands reputation. If you hear any rumours about mine, I may be responsible for starting them, and they may just be true. But don't anyone out there get any ideas. I've been putting up with the out-laws for 20 plus years, so ladies, he's mine!
2. 25 years ago, Marco and I were blessed to go to school with some really wonderful people, and we are really thankful for that. But don't let any of them tell you they are grown up mature people. In fact some of them are downright ratbags and degenerates. Those are the one's we like the best.
3. Sometimes in life, when we least expect it, we get the opportunity to meet new people who will make an enoumous difference in our lives for the better. We should grab those opportunities with both hands and not let go. Life is short, and some of us hide behind our own fears and insecurities. I have done this for most of my life. (until you add alcohol and stir - then anything's possible). On the weekend I made a new friend, and some new old friends. If it looks like I'm creeping back behind my wall, someone knock it down and drag me out.
4. There is a reason people our age don't go clubbing. Young people look at you funny at first, and then with a growing level of annoyance. The noise level in clubs is way too high, and bar staff don't really want to serve us. I did meet the most diplomatic bouncer at Flynns though. When I asked if he wanted to see ID, he told me it wasn't necessary, I had an honest face. Honest = wrinkled.
5. We should all aim to be the cool, non-judgemental type of parents, who willingly pick their kids up at all hours of the night from where ever they happen to be during their growing up turning into adult years. That way, when we regress back to those years ourselves, they will be the cool, non-judgemental type of kids, who willingly come to pick us up at all hours of the night from where ever we happen to be. And if you are as lucky as me, they won't even lecture you on your behaviour, or lack of shoes.
1. I keep hearing things about how you shouldn't eat or drink, or put on make up while driving the car, because it's too much of a distraction. I could eat, drink and put on make up, all at the same time while driving the car, and it would be less distracting that having 3 kids in the back.
2. When a plaintive voice from behind the drivers seat says "Mummy, I made splashyou!", you need to say "God Bless You". And just be thankful that this time she didn't actually splash you.
3. The Lalaloopsy dolls now come in 2 packs, with a big sister and a little sister, we know this because we saw them in the shops. Apparently they are "Just like Abi and Mieki". I know this because Abi told me, and I guess she is right, apart from the pink/purple/orange/blue hair.
4. When Daddy is preparing to change a nappy, and the 18mo who rarely uses actual words, is laying on the change table very clearly saying, "It's baaaad", take her word for it. And that is why it's Daddy's turn to change the nappies on the weekend.
5. When 5 o'clock comes, and the bus drives away with the almost 13yo, who has driven you crazy for the last 3 days shopping and packing for a Music Tour to Brisvegas, you can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that if anything is forgotton now she will just have to do without it, or the teachers will have to sort it out. That is, you can if you are the Mummy who now has a week of peace before all the dirty washing comes home. If you are the Daddy however, who suffers from seperation anxiety, you can now prepare to torment your wife by being stressed and miserable for the next 7 days, for NO GOOD REASON. Learn to let go a bit so your kids can have a life, and get one of your own in the process. Besides, there are 5 other kids in the house you can lavish you attention on.
Unlike · · 16 June at 20:26 ·
1. As torturous as shopping and packing for your 13yo to go to Brisbane for a week is, it is far worse to go through it with a 19yo with the flu going to Thredbo for 10 days. It will probably take me 10 days to recover from the ordeal.
2. As much fun as it has been to tease Marco about his separation anxiety from Felicia, he can expect even less sympathy if he is missing Belinda. I plan to enjoy the next 10 days without an adult child tormenting her younger siblings until they scream and wake the baby, blaming her parents for every imaginable thing, (including the fact that Ray's Outdoors advertise thermal underwear as up to 60% off, but don't give the actual price, because I obviously have control of that), and either manipulating, sweet talking or just plain whinging to get other people to pay for everything for her.
3. If you tell your cardiologist that you are a poor uni student, with 5 younger siblings who sap your parents dry of all the money they should have kept to spend on you, and can't afford to come for a follow up test, he will not only offer to do the test "for gratis", he will also bulk bill you for the current appointment.
4. Gen Y's do not know what "for gratis" means, and getting them to shut up while they're ahead, without actually explaining it in front of the doctor or his receptionist is not that easy. Somewhere along the line I have failed as a parent, because "the look" does not work on my first born.
5. The scariest thing about taking your child for tests with a heart specialist, is the thought that he will discover that she doesn't have one. Turns out she does, and for the past week she has just been using it for pumping blood, and not much else. Here's hoping a holiday in the snow will thaw her out a bit.
Unlike · · 22 June at 23:00 ·
1. When you can't find Tamieka, who is small, so easy to lose, she will always be in the last place you look. According to Marco this is because once you find her, you stop looking. It's not really true though. Once you find her, you go looking for the trail of destruction she has left in her wake.
2. If you want to get flowers for the garden, tell your husband that you want to go to Bunnings to get herbs to plant. It fits in with the Food Nazi code of conduct. You will have to buy herbs as well, just so that you can slip the flower seedlings in between them so he doesn't notice just how many you have. And if all else fails, tell him they have edible flowers. Just be careful not to buy any poisonous ones. He may feed them to the kids. (That might explain all the throwing up.)
3. Some people might think that I have an excessive amount of cot/toddler bed sheets, if they knew how many I had. But if they had been here last night and today, when four seperate lots of bedding went into the wash, from two tiny people throwing up on them, they would not begrudge me my extra sheets, or blankets, or cloth nappies.
4. You know your teenage son doesn't get further away from his bedroom than the bathroom or the fridge during school holidays, when he's going to his friends for an all day and night computer game marathon (broken only by a few hours at lazer tag in the middle), and as he walks past the front garden bed that you just spent the whole weekend weeding and replanting, asks "Did you go on a weed masacre or something?".
5. Morning people are strange creatures. Getting up at 6am to start work at 7, is not that fun. Especially in June. I just don't understand why some people get up this early just because they like it, and say it's the best time of the day. It's cold and dark and normal people just want to be in bed sleeping. I'm going to write to the tax office and ask them to change the end of the financial year to September. It won't clash with Christmas, it won't be in winter, and it won't feel so awful when I have to get up early to do PAYG statements.
Like · · 25 June at 22:58 ·
1. If Dad is home, it is his duty to help Abi go to the toilet. It doesn't matter that she can do it herself, and does when he's not here. When she says "Dad, come on", he'd just better come. And as soon as she is on the toilet, he should "Get out and shut the door, Dad".
2. In desperation at being told to hurry up and drive, when stopped at red lights, Mummy taught Abi all about red lights and green lights, and policemen and jail. When Dad is driving now, and goes through orange lights, "NO DAD, you have to STOP! You need to wait for the green light to go. You are so naughty Dad, you didn't wait for the green light!"
3. When Tamieka gets her head stuck in the arm of the chair, you shouldn't pull her out and say "Oh you poor thing." "She's not a THING Dad, she's a Mieka! Don't call her a thing."
4. When Dad has a headache, a cat or dinosaur sticker on his forehead will fix it. Stangely it seems to work. Makes me think Marco is either secretly taking anelgesics, or was just faking the headache for sympathy. Either sympathy or he thinks he looks good with a kids sticker on his forehead.
5. And for the greatest wisdom of all, when the Food Nazi is trying to make you feel guilty for eating ice-cream, and tells you that he will be so disappointed if you eat it, this is the answer I intend to use in the future. "You won't DIE, Dad.", said in a tone of exasperation meant to infer that she is entirely over his attempts to use emotional blackmail to control her diet.
Unlike · · 1 July at 17:40 ·
1. Parenting is all about bedtime and dire consequences. You spend the morning threatening dire consequences if teenagers don't get out of bed, and the evening(and often well into the night) threatening dire consequences if they don't get back into bed. And I would very much like to know why the parents of the teenagers talking to mine on vent in the middle of the night aren't making their sons go to bed.
2. It would be better if all the kids in the house were either morning people, or night owls. I wouldn't mind getting up a 6am, if I had gotten to bed before 1am. As much as I like school holidays, I look forward to much better sleeping patterns once school restarts.
3. Townsville seems to be having winter with a vengence. I think it must be because all the expats who moved south are coming home for the high school reunion, and bringing the cold weather with them. Just make sure you take it back with you when you leave.
4. Cars should be serviced in summer, not winter. It's not right having to leave the house at 7am when the temperature is 10 degrees. Try to remember this for next year Marco Parigi.
5. I am not a fan of car racing, and would rather watch grass grow than watch cars drive round and round a track to see who goes the fastest. Normally I have "you live your life your way, and I'll live mine" policy, but frankly when a ridiculous sport puts up road blocks over half the CBD, and has ugly buildings erected, which get used one weekend a year, I become less tolerant. If the V8 organisers were to decide that there is a better place to hold their race at the end of the 5 year contract, I would not be unhappy.
Unlike · · 4 July at 18:59 ·
1. We won't need to water the garden for a while, now that the winter monsoons have set in. Those are the monsoons you get without risk of a cyclone, although it has been a bit windy.
2. Men should stop writing lists of instructions on how to be good housewives, or women may start writing lists of instructions on how to be good husbands. They will be headed up "How to be a real Man". That one is for you Jia Zhang.
3. A really good day is the day when your house is reasonably clean (we could stop there and that would do it, but not today), and both your toddlers take a nap at the same time, and so does the uni student on holidays, enabling you to take a nap too. And yes, I've been a mother long enough to know, when miracles happen, go with them.
4. A really bad day is when the fan belt in your dryer breaks, and the kids at one of the highschools started a rumour, which spread like wildfire, that school is cancelled today because of all the rain. Now my reasonably clean house has washing hanging all over it, trying to get dry.
5. Crazy Clarks sell really good, cheap rain guages. Only $2. Don't bother getting one. They don't hold enough rain. I would like to tell you just how much it rained last night, but the rain guage overflowed, so you'll just have to look in up on the net. Or go with my very accurate measurement of "lots".
Unlike · · 10 July at 22:24 ·
1. You know kids these days are growing up too fast when your 3yo rolls her eyes at you, with the same level of skill as your 19yo.
2. You know kids these days have less respect for their elders when your 3yo says "Dad listen to me!" and after Dad says, "ok I'm listening", responds "I told you to SHUT UP DAD!"
3. You know kids these days watch too much TV (or IView in this case), when your 3yo goes around all day snorting, just like Peppa Pig.
4. You know why kids these days have all these character flaws when your listen to the example being set to them by their teenage siblings.
5. You realise that you can forgive them anything when your 3yo and 19mo get up in the morning, and seeing each other for the first time since they were forced apart the night before, throw their arms around each other and start kissing as if they thought they might never see one other again.
Life Lessons from the Pandemonious Parigi Palace. (I've been putting this one off as sometimes you don't want to admit to all the lessons you've needed to learn.)
1. Drinking too much alcohol is bad. It's bad for your liver. Bad for your brain cells. Bad for your blemish free reputation. It may however be good for your husbands reputation. If you hear any rumours about mine, I may be responsible for starting them, and they may just be true. But don't anyone out there get any ideas. I've been putting up with the out-laws for 20 plus years, so ladies, he's mine!
2. 25 years ago, Marco and I were blessed to go to school with some really wonderful people, and we are really thankful for that. But don't let any of them tell you they are grown up mature people. In fact some of them are downright ratbags and degenerates. Those are the one's we like the best.
3. Sometimes in life, when we least expect it, we get the opportunity to meet new people who will make an enoumous difference in our lives for the better. We should grab those opportunities with both hands and not let go. Life is short, and some of us hide behind our own fears and insecurities. I have done this for most of my life. (until you add alcohol and stir - then anything's possible). On the weekend I made a new friend, and some new old friends. If it looks like I'm creeping back behind my wall, someone knock it down and drag me out.
4. There is a reason people our age don't go clubbing. Young people look at you funny at first, and then with a growing level of annoyance. The noise level in clubs is way too high, and bar staff don't really want to serve us. I did meet the most diplomatic bouncer at Flynns though. When I asked if he wanted to see ID, he told me it wasn't necessary, I had an honest face. Honest = wrinkled.
5. We should all aim to be the cool, non-judgemental type of parents, who willingly pick their kids up at all hours of the night from where ever they happen to be during their growing up turning into adult years. That way, when we regress back to those years ourselves, they will be the cool, non-judgemental type of kids, who willingly come to pick us up at all hours of the night from where ever we happen to be. And if you are as lucky as me, they won't even lecture you on your behaviour, or lack of shoes.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Mad Monday and all that.
Monday the 9th was dubbed mad Monday due to the solar tariff reduction deadline. It was the biggest test of my principled stance against solar tariffs. My only way of personal protest is to avoid taking advantage of them, but the bombardment of ads leading up to Monday was incessant. Half the population lined up to get their applications in before the midnight deadline. I failed to get a valid application in, and last night I had nightmares about having missed out. It's still just a type of investment, and my instincts are always to zag when everybody zigs, so I may get solar when nobody else is, without need for subsidy.
I definitely think that a sudden reduction was not the way to reduce the financial burden of the scheme. The main risk is from the long guaranteed tariff amount. It would have been a much smoother ride if the term of contract were reduced in stages from 15 years down to 5 years, thus reducing the long term risk.
I definitely think that a sudden reduction was not the way to reduce the financial burden of the scheme. The main risk is from the long guaranteed tariff amount. It would have been a much smoother ride if the term of contract were reduced in stages from 15 years down to 5 years, thus reducing the long term risk.
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Gradients of Evil
Further evidence to myself that I am not a moral relativist on reading Menachem Begin. The gradient of evil between Stalinist prison camps and Nazi extermination camps has got me thinking about what I think is more evil than what. A lot of people consider child molestation as worse than even cold blooded murder, and certainly, I was one to think that if you look at the raw numbers of deaths and suffering between Stalin and Hitler, one might even think Stalinist crimes against humanity to be worse. This book said little about the nazi crimes, but his experience of the soviet system clarified that the morality of the abuse, or rather the lack thereof, is linked to the intent of the abuser. Whether a crime is merely bad or heinous is about what is happening in the mind of the criminal.
Hitler and his leadership group had decided on mass murder, and that at no military, economic or moral justification, or even gain.
Stalin, on the other hand, had in mind disposable convict labor. Genocide was not what he was trying to achieve, even if his tactics to extend an empire involved mass torture and essentially working prisoners to their deaths.
To extend this to compare the morality of suicide terrorism against territorial containment, the intent with suicide terrorism is to kill - often innocent and random civilians. Territorial containment can cause considerable destitution and strikes to enforce it can cause more deaths than the terrorism it is aiming to contain, but the intent indicates a much lesser evil.
Hitler and his leadership group had decided on mass murder, and that at no military, economic or moral justification, or even gain.
Stalin, on the other hand, had in mind disposable convict labor. Genocide was not what he was trying to achieve, even if his tactics to extend an empire involved mass torture and essentially working prisoners to their deaths.
To extend this to compare the morality of suicide terrorism against territorial containment, the intent with suicide terrorism is to kill - often innocent and random civilians. Territorial containment can cause considerable destitution and strikes to enforce it can cause more deaths than the terrorism it is aiming to contain, but the intent indicates a much lesser evil.
Friday, June 01, 2012
Begin Reading
Menachem Begin's White Nights. Have read this book now and found it an easy read as it is non fiction and broadly intellectual. I don't really have much to say in regards to Zionism or antisemitism, but the morality of the prison camps of The USSR compared to those of the Nazis was an interesting take. I have come to the view that whether it be talking about the "humane" treatment of prisoners or animals, it is the cold-blooded killing of them which is has primacy in the moral debate. Towards the end of the book, Begin compares the Siberian prison camps to the Nazi death camps, and surmises that even though arguably the Stalinist camps resulted in a similar scale of deaths, which were slow, painful and tortuous in comparison to the nazi extermination camps. The longer internment, and the usage of labour allowed a window of hope that one can make a difference.
To compare it with the morality or otherwise of humane butchering of cattle - The humanity is for the benefit of the humans and our sensitivities. When cattle perceive that they are going to be harmed, their hope of escape keeps them going. Is it any more cruel if the animal is fighting for its freedom right until the last minute?
To compare it with the morality or otherwise of humane butchering of cattle - The humanity is for the benefit of the humans and our sensitivities. When cattle perceive that they are going to be harmed, their hope of escape keeps them going. Is it any more cruel if the animal is fighting for its freedom right until the last minute?
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Last Comet post for a while maybe
One last thing that I wanted to say about comets that may be interesting but uncontrovercial, was about the potential usage of the "atmosphere" of the comet for cometary bases. By this I do not mean the corona, but by sealing off one of the "jets" partially or completely and having a robot within the higher pressure gas chamber thus formed, the volatile cases and solids, including water, HCN and organics, could be used to generate fuel for a space base, and the atmospheric pressure inside may reduce the need for exceedingly bulky spacesuits for human visitors, although the poisonous nature of the HCN may be problematic.
Saturday, May 12, 2012
The Shoah
Which is the preferred Jewish term for the holocaust, has been in my mind since "The boy in striped pijamas" has been a study material in my daughter's grade Eight English. My initial thought was that it was based on a true story of a very naive 9 year old son of a German wartime camp commandant befriending a Jewish boy, eventually both meeting a horrible fate. I saw but a few scenes of the movie when it was being watched at home, but it haunted me all the same, preventing me from a good night's sleep. This did not get better until I read some reviews of the book and movie, realizing that it was actually a plausible but possibly very unlikely fictional scenario- being a clever allegory to the naivety of the German populace to the existence of extermination camps.
I have since realized that I have never truly studied the holocaust at all, relying on what other people tell me, and whatever I learned at school on studying Anne Frank's diary. In particular, the demographic effects make a lot of sense to me now. The Jewish peoples were, pre Shoah, renowned for their reliance on diplomacy and negotiation skills to get them by. By the mere fact that the only remaining European Jews were paranoid, hawkish and primary victims of WWII atrocities, directly or indirectly. This goes some way to explaining the perceived paranoia, hawkishness and victim mentality of Israel. I don't want this to be perceived as a justification for anything immoral the Israeli forces may or may not do for whatever provocation, but a realization that it is a natural demographic consequence in general terms.
I have since realized that I have never truly studied the holocaust at all, relying on what other people tell me, and whatever I learned at school on studying Anne Frank's diary. In particular, the demographic effects make a lot of sense to me now. The Jewish peoples were, pre Shoah, renowned for their reliance on diplomacy and negotiation skills to get them by. By the mere fact that the only remaining European Jews were paranoid, hawkish and primary victims of WWII atrocities, directly or indirectly. This goes some way to explaining the perceived paranoia, hawkishness and victim mentality of Israel. I don't want this to be perceived as a justification for anything immoral the Israeli forces may or may not do for whatever provocation, but a realization that it is a natural demographic consequence in general terms.
Sunday, April 01, 2012
The Australian Moment
I read the ebook, with the fourth "reader app" I had downloaded for the fourth ebook that I have read.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Why I am not voting Labor
From Independent Contractors of Australia:
In Australia we’re advancing the fine art of destroying small business entrepreneurship. In yet another attack against entrepreneurship, the Gillard government is moving to outlaw home-based business people in the clothing sector. The new law declares that self-employed clothing business people (mostly women) are employees. In this instance the death of small business is not an unintended consequence, it’s the direct stated outcome of the Gillard government’s policy.
There needs to be an allowance for a progression from home based clothing businesses, all the way to fashion warehouses. At the moment, absolutely everything in between that involves subcontracting is looked at with suspicion. Clothing businesses run from home are essentially illegal if they do work for any other businesses, or get smaller businesses to do work for them. How does any clothing business go from A (being a hobby) to B (a business employing people) legally?
The Queensland government does not directly make these rules, but determine the level of enforcement, which at this point is not doing them any favours.
In Australia we’re advancing the fine art of destroying small business entrepreneurship. In yet another attack against entrepreneurship, the Gillard government is moving to outlaw home-based business people in the clothing sector. The new law declares that self-employed clothing business people (mostly women) are employees. In this instance the death of small business is not an unintended consequence, it’s the direct stated outcome of the Gillard government’s policy.
There needs to be an allowance for a progression from home based clothing businesses, all the way to fashion warehouses. At the moment, absolutely everything in between that involves subcontracting is looked at with suspicion. Clothing businesses run from home are essentially illegal if they do work for any other businesses, or get smaller businesses to do work for them. How does any clothing business go from A (being a hobby) to B (a business employing people) legally?
The Queensland government does not directly make these rules, but determine the level of enforcement, which at this point is not doing them any favours.
Saturday, March 03, 2012
Marconomic evolutionary theory
I am trying to better form my theory such that it is intelligible and able to be judged in something approaching conventional scientific terms. I don't think I need any more working assumptions than my ten marconomic assumptions to come to my conclusions. Clearly, my last one (replacing parsimony)is the most problematic as it directly contradicts conventional scientific practice. Note that I am not multiplying parameters to "fit a camel", nor do I think that the problem is that we have assumed a spherical horse. It is completely about shifting the burden of proof from assertions that cannot be proven possible or impossible. No assertion deserves the benefit of not having to be proven. We must also look at the context of these assertions, and to what end they might serve ie. is there data to fit/not fit, or are they purely descriptive? Does contradictory data mean a tweak to the assertion and at what point do we reinstate the requirement of proof of the original assertion in the face of some contradictory data? In that sense the assumption of uniformity is different, as actual calculations derive directly from it. If the principle of uniformity was purely descriptive, and we used some other contradictory device to explain the current evolution of stars and planets, it would be suspect.
My theory of abiogenesis starts from the formation of second generation stars from remnants of supernova dust cloud intercepting a pristine Molecular cloud. Experimental evidence shows that these exist, and are likely precursors to our solar system and orbiting bodies. There is experimental evidence for molecular clouds clumping together to pristine low density snowballs. These "pristine comets" would have a density of about .2 ie. they are mainly empty space. The supernova remnant dust cloud however, would be a lot more chaotic mixture of elements. Before or after the accretion disk of the solar system formed, the border zone between the dust clouds would have had pristine comets infused with heavier elements from the supernova dust cloud. Perhaps billions of these comets would have had liquid water in them due to heat from radioactive heavier elements. Protected by a covering of snow, and kept liquid by slowly decaying elements, these "pristine comets" would have all the ingredients required for primordial soup style evolution to occur, in billions of slightly different conditions, and with mechanisms that would almost certainly exchange chemistry, collide and fragment. Every individual comet of this type would have similar probability of chemical evolution than the early Earth would. Having so many of them multiplies the probability of Precisely the right initial conditions for evolution to happen quickly.
Whether "modern comets" are anything like "pristine comets" is a matter for debate. After all, it has been 4 Billion years since we had a pristine molecular cloud near our solar system, so no matter the origin of any "modern comet", assuming it is a pristine comet relatively recently perturbed near the sun, is probably not helpful, as recent evidence appears to contradict the assertion that they are anything like pristine. The point is that early in the piece, as the solar system was still forming, lots of comet like objects had all the features required for the sorts of successful precursor evolution, and more. How far this evolution went, and where it spread from, and to, is a pertinent question to answer. There have been several successful missions to comets, and several comets have now been imaged in close detail. We have collected samples from the coma of one, a space mission will analyze the surface of another in 2014, and yet another mission will collect and return a sample from the surface of an asteroid. All observed comets have discrete jets on the surface which have stable positions from apparition to apparition. These are thought to be from fissures in the comet from which sublimating volatiles escape expelling dust out. A robot spacecraft could drop a tethered explorer into one of these fissures to look inside the comet, plausibly to a great depth, while the comet is in a dormant phase. This would generate useful information about what is happening inside the comet.
My theory of abiogenesis starts from the formation of second generation stars from remnants of supernova dust cloud intercepting a pristine Molecular cloud. Experimental evidence shows that these exist, and are likely precursors to our solar system and orbiting bodies. There is experimental evidence for molecular clouds clumping together to pristine low density snowballs. These "pristine comets" would have a density of about .2 ie. they are mainly empty space. The supernova remnant dust cloud however, would be a lot more chaotic mixture of elements. Before or after the accretion disk of the solar system formed, the border zone between the dust clouds would have had pristine comets infused with heavier elements from the supernova dust cloud. Perhaps billions of these comets would have had liquid water in them due to heat from radioactive heavier elements. Protected by a covering of snow, and kept liquid by slowly decaying elements, these "pristine comets" would have all the ingredients required for primordial soup style evolution to occur, in billions of slightly different conditions, and with mechanisms that would almost certainly exchange chemistry, collide and fragment. Every individual comet of this type would have similar probability of chemical evolution than the early Earth would. Having so many of them multiplies the probability of Precisely the right initial conditions for evolution to happen quickly.
Whether "modern comets" are anything like "pristine comets" is a matter for debate. After all, it has been 4 Billion years since we had a pristine molecular cloud near our solar system, so no matter the origin of any "modern comet", assuming it is a pristine comet relatively recently perturbed near the sun, is probably not helpful, as recent evidence appears to contradict the assertion that they are anything like pristine. The point is that early in the piece, as the solar system was still forming, lots of comet like objects had all the features required for the sorts of successful precursor evolution, and more. How far this evolution went, and where it spread from, and to, is a pertinent question to answer. There have been several successful missions to comets, and several comets have now been imaged in close detail. We have collected samples from the coma of one, a space mission will analyze the surface of another in 2014, and yet another mission will collect and return a sample from the surface of an asteroid. All observed comets have discrete jets on the surface which have stable positions from apparition to apparition. These are thought to be from fissures in the comet from which sublimating volatiles escape expelling dust out. A robot spacecraft could drop a tethered explorer into one of these fissures to look inside the comet, plausibly to a great depth, while the comet is in a dormant phase. This would generate useful information about what is happening inside the comet.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
An Idea for a science fiction book
Humans finally discover intelligent alien life, which makes us reconsider all our scientific theories again. for instance, comet Hartley:
This comet was originally thought to be this shape due to random collisions and other natural forces. The two ends show a lot of evidence of minor impacts causing craters of various sizes. The middle part shows no signs of such weathering - appears smooth, has an oval or circular cross-section and shows no outgassing activity. Scientists originally concluded that the middle section only looks smooth because of dust re-depositing onto the centre of gravity of the comet. The jets appear random, though measurements from Earth indicate that the jets affect the rate of rotation of Hartley. To me it would be a better science fiction story if the two sides are moving apart and the centrifugal forces of the rotation are causing the middle to stretch, and the jets are controlling the rate of rotation.
Speaking of Jets, Scientists are quite sure the jets are due to sub-surface sublimation of volatiles (water, HCN etc.) forcing out dust particles at the same time. Surfaces appear quite stable, and the jets are in static positions on the comet nucleus.
The following link for comet temple 1 demonstrates how jets on the same location of the comet sporadically ejects a sudden large amount of mass, at the same point of its 44 hour rotation period - ie. in the same direction in space. Scientists believe this is due to the uneven solar related heating related to the rotation somehow causing the random outburst. It would be a better science fiction story if these jets were an orbit correction maneuvre.
Comets are notoriously hard to predict in the long term due to their Non-gravitational accelerations. Adjusting for the parameters helps a little bit, but it would be a much better science fiction story if the comet was actively controlling the accelerator, to go from gravity assist to gravity assist to make sure it didn't hit a planet in the future, or to control how it is going to hit a planet in the future to better colonise it. Perhaps, rather than hitting one spot on the planet, multiply into several pieces landing on different times of the planet's day to get a good spread over all longitudes, like Comet Shoemaker Levy 9.
Scientific theory holds that many comets are loosely connected pieces given the long List of comet pairs and other splitting events that have been shown to occur.
It would be a much better science fiction story if these events were like amoebal fission - ie. that comets were reproducing. They may have been around for many millions of years, accreting mass through collisions. Now they have enough energy and mass that they can reproduce and go their separate ways - perhaps one might one day leave the solar system and explore other systems.
Speaking of Jets, Scientists are quite sure the jets are due to sub-surface sublimation of volatiles (water, HCN etc.) forcing out dust particles at the same time. Surfaces appear quite stable, and the jets are in static positions on the comet nucleus.
The following link for comet temple 1 demonstrates how jets on the same location of the comet sporadically ejects a sudden large amount of mass, at the same point of its 44 hour rotation period - ie. in the same direction in space. Scientists believe this is due to the uneven solar related heating related to the rotation somehow causing the random outburst. It would be a better science fiction story if these jets were an orbit correction maneuvre.
Scientific theory holds that many comets are loosely connected pieces given the long List of comet pairs and other splitting events that have been shown to occur.
It would be a much better science fiction story if these events were like amoebal fission - ie. that comets were reproducing. They may have been around for many millions of years, accreting mass through collisions. Now they have enough energy and mass that they can reproduce and go their separate ways - perhaps one might one day leave the solar system and explore other systems.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Now addicted to ResearchGate
ResearchGate
Have found easy to access scientific discussion in a forum which reminds me completely of Facebook. It is infinitely easier to access actual research rather than just what is freely available on the net (although admittedly some researchers restrict some of their stuff)
{Non sequitur}
I am still convinced we will discover intelligent alien life within our lifetime (say before 2050) and they will be (or in) comets and not life as we know it (obviously). This is an exciting prospect for me, as I thought until early this year that it was a distant untouchable possibility - an impossible dream fit only for science fiction and fantasy novels. I look forward to it, and I am assuming nobody will believe it until it stares them in the face (or into the robotic spacecraft's sensor). For that reason it will take a while. I don't feel I need to do anything about it, and just let "science" take its course. Comets have, at any rate, been found to be more interesting than suspected, and they take less rocket energy to liaise with, so will continue to be visited as a group more often than any particular planet or moon. Anyhow - you heard it here first.
{/Non sequitur}
Have found easy to access scientific discussion in a forum which reminds me completely of Facebook. It is infinitely easier to access actual research rather than just what is freely available on the net (although admittedly some researchers restrict some of their stuff)
{Non sequitur}
I am still convinced we will discover intelligent alien life within our lifetime (say before 2050) and they will be (or in) comets and not life as we know it (obviously). This is an exciting prospect for me, as I thought until early this year that it was a distant untouchable possibility - an impossible dream fit only for science fiction and fantasy novels. I look forward to it, and I am assuming nobody will believe it until it stares them in the face (or into the robotic spacecraft's sensor). For that reason it will take a while. I don't feel I need to do anything about it, and just let "science" take its course. Comets have, at any rate, been found to be more interesting than suspected, and they take less rocket energy to liaise with, so will continue to be visited as a group more often than any particular planet or moon. Anyhow - you heard it here first.
{/Non sequitur}
Friday, February 10, 2012
Conservation of information
This Entropy/Thermodynamics/Information Wikipedia article is as close as one can get to what the standard scientific treatise of the link between energy, information and entropy.
From the information is physical -> Szilards Engine.
The global entropy is not decreased, but information to energy conversion is possible..
This appears to put information on an equal footing as mass or energy, in the sense that it is conserved in general, but can be also transformed between energy and mass. It is tempting to follow the lead of the ID ers to intimate that informational entropy can either stay the same and increase but not decrease - My view is different, in that I believe that information can be generated through the use of energy in naturally occuring metabolic systems. .
My first postulate is that information can increase (be created) within a boundary if the entropy is increased outside the boundary..
My second postulate is that some of the energy within the boundary must necessarily increase the information if entropy is increased outside the boundary. This would mean that stars like the sun, that send a lot of waste heat outside of itself, are becoming more ordered on the inside, in proportion..
Thus random processes could not increase information, but metabolic processes can, by separating where the information is stored and expelling its increasing entropy to where it isn't..
To destroy information, the directionality of increased entropy must be directed back to within the boundary (making the rest of the universe slightly more ordered).
Neither the generation, nor the destruction of information is a perfect process, and there will be some leakage of energy to information..
From the information is physical -> Szilards Engine.
The global entropy is not decreased, but information to energy conversion is possible..
This appears to put information on an equal footing as mass or energy, in the sense that it is conserved in general, but can be also transformed between energy and mass. It is tempting to follow the lead of the ID ers to intimate that informational entropy can either stay the same and increase but not decrease - My view is different, in that I believe that information can be generated through the use of energy in naturally occuring metabolic systems. .
My first postulate is that information can increase (be created) within a boundary if the entropy is increased outside the boundary..
My second postulate is that some of the energy within the boundary must necessarily increase the information if entropy is increased outside the boundary. This would mean that stars like the sun, that send a lot of waste heat outside of itself, are becoming more ordered on the inside, in proportion..
Thus random processes could not increase information, but metabolic processes can, by separating where the information is stored and expelling its increasing entropy to where it isn't..
To destroy information, the directionality of increased entropy must be directed back to within the boundary (making the rest of the universe slightly more ordered).
Neither the generation, nor the destruction of information is a perfect process, and there will be some leakage of energy to information..
Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Chemical factory model of "physical cemistry" life
I must admit that when I say I *really* liked These metabolism posts, it doesn't mean I agreed with all the things that I thought were completely non-sequiters. These posts rightly say that without an explanation of how metabolism is being performed, talking about how complex chemicals can be reproduced is an excercise in formula manipulation and wishful thinking chemistry. The most crucial part of these posts is the energy graph and pictures showing the inside and outside, and tight logic that pretty much states, that if this cannot happen, life will not happen. Also the bit which states that we should start with what we think physical chemistry life would look like, and see how it could progress, is fair enough.
However, I also think that metabolism without reproduction is just as useless. The metabolic process has to reproduce itself, or at least be produced with a process that continues virtually forever through time, such that there will always be appropriate metabolic systems. The system must somehow also build information, whatever that means.
In my "chemical factory" model of life, the thing which is reproducing (a molecule of some kind) is not the of the same scale as that which is providing the metabolism (chemical factory). Just imagine a factory which is producing widgets of random size and shape, not knowing if they will ever be used in anything. Energy is going in, and the rest of the Universe is being made random, and certain widgets are being produced depending on the type of energy being applied, seed molecules available, and what molecules are escaping into the rest of the Universe. Certain factories are making one type of molecule preferentially, while others are making others preferentially. Every now and then a molecule or group will be thrust from one to another factory, altering the seed stock and affecting which chemicals are more predominant.
These "factories" could be any size - Molecular cloud sized, planet sized, asteroid sized, football field sized, golf ball sized, ball bearing sized - you get the drift. It doesn't really matter. What matters is the previous mentioned requirements for them to demonstrate metabolism as described in the metabolism posts. Energy in, waste out, outside more random, inside less random. It is not hard to see, that at some scale, in some conditions, it would be life generating metabolism.
Saturday, February 04, 2012
Where did that prebiotic life go... I know I left it here somewhere
Charles Darwin addressed the question, suggesting that the original spark of life may have begun in a "warm little pond, with all sorts of ammonia and phosphoric salts, lights, heat, electricity, etc. present, so that a protein compound was chemically formed ready to undergo still more complex changes". He went on to explain that "at the present day such matter would be instantly devoured or absorbed, which would not have been the case before living creatures were formed."
thus the idea that prebiotic chemistry would just be absorbed into biotic chemistry when evolution had reached that level, was born. I must admit that it appears self evident. However, I can imagine progressions of events that would indicate completely the opposite- ie, that in the environment that life evolved/developed, not only would biota not destroy per-biota, but would rely on its function to such an extent that it could not. Just as we could not survive if we destroyed every bit of bacteria on our body.
Oparin proposed that the "spontaneous generation of life" that had been attacked by Louis Pasteur did in fact occur once, but was now impossible because the conditions found on the early Earth had changed, and preexisting organisms would immediately consume any spontaneously generated organism.
Again, the assumption comes in that spontaneously generated organisms could not survive alongside existing organisms. The point is, since we cannot know whether this is the case or not, because we don't have the slightest idea where or when it happened, nor the exact chemical composition when it happened, we could certainly not prove it, nor even give it a probability. Perhaps parsimony which dictates that we assume life started on Earth would follow with the conclusion that, since there is not even a scrap of evidence for prebiotic evolution here, that biota had an evidence destroying capacity in that regards, much as some species can disappear without a trace. However, if one accepts biogenesis happening elsewhere, we would have to assume that we could find evidence for it at that location, even if there is also biota at that location.
thus the idea that prebiotic chemistry would just be absorbed into biotic chemistry when evolution had reached that level, was born. I must admit that it appears self evident. However, I can imagine progressions of events that would indicate completely the opposite- ie, that in the environment that life evolved/developed, not only would biota not destroy per-biota, but would rely on its function to such an extent that it could not. Just as we could not survive if we destroyed every bit of bacteria on our body.
Oparin proposed that the "spontaneous generation of life" that had been attacked by Louis Pasteur did in fact occur once, but was now impossible because the conditions found on the early Earth had changed, and preexisting organisms would immediately consume any spontaneously generated organism.
Again, the assumption comes in that spontaneously generated organisms could not survive alongside existing organisms. The point is, since we cannot know whether this is the case or not, because we don't have the slightest idea where or when it happened, nor the exact chemical composition when it happened, we could certainly not prove it, nor even give it a probability. Perhaps parsimony which dictates that we assume life started on Earth would follow with the conclusion that, since there is not even a scrap of evidence for prebiotic evolution here, that biota had an evidence destroying capacity in that regards, much as some species can disappear without a trace. However, if one accepts biogenesis happening elsewhere, we would have to assume that we could find evidence for it at that location, even if there is also biota at that location.
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
I have lost faith in scientists
Having read the book "God's Undertaker", and the book "Amino Acids and the assymetry of life", I have come to the conclusion that a huge chunk of science is "eating fruit from the poisonous tree" in the sense that working assumptions are being used routinely that have a heap of experimental evidence going against them (as opposed to the legal metaphor where evidence is gathered illegaly). Alternatively, they place false doubts on experimental evidence because the simple mathematical models they put on them don't match with those experimental results.
For instance, one would be confused for thinking that the thousands of experiments done on the origin of life on Earth have demonstrated the plausibility of life originating on Earth. Nothing of the sort has happened. ALL the experiments start with the assumption that life started here, and they concentrate on one particular tiny aspect that has to happen a particular way for life to have started here, and the proof that it happened comes DIRECTLY from the assumption - ie. we are here so it must have happened.
With chirality, almost all carbonaceous meteorites have demonstrated chirality with their organic molecules. This has been used to prove that similar Earthly chiral molecules have non-life origin, rather than the quite different *Similar Earthly chiral molecules are as much linked to life as those from Carbonaceous Chondrite Asteroids*. There is no evidence for or against living matter having been in asteroids other than this chirality evidence, which wouldn't rule it out, but retain the possibility. Racemic organics would have ruled it out.
The explanation of how the meteoric (and Earthly petroleum) organics had become chiral is based on mathematical models of carbon molecules under high pressure. It is not based on experimental evidence. It is a classic case of believing the simplified model over testing out a typical experimental observation to back up a possible working model.
A similar thing with the model of how Comet organics became chiral.
For instance, one would be confused for thinking that the thousands of experiments done on the origin of life on Earth have demonstrated the plausibility of life originating on Earth. Nothing of the sort has happened. ALL the experiments start with the assumption that life started here, and they concentrate on one particular tiny aspect that has to happen a particular way for life to have started here, and the proof that it happened comes DIRECTLY from the assumption - ie. we are here so it must have happened.
With chirality, almost all carbonaceous meteorites have demonstrated chirality with their organic molecules. This has been used to prove that similar Earthly chiral molecules have non-life origin, rather than the quite different *Similar Earthly chiral molecules are as much linked to life as those from Carbonaceous Chondrite Asteroids*. There is no evidence for or against living matter having been in asteroids other than this chirality evidence, which wouldn't rule it out, but retain the possibility. Racemic organics would have ruled it out.
The explanation of how the meteoric (and Earthly petroleum) organics had become chiral is based on mathematical models of carbon molecules under high pressure. It is not based on experimental evidence. It is a classic case of believing the simplified model over testing out a typical experimental observation to back up a possible working model.
A similar thing with the model of how Comet organics became chiral.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Parsimony in the historical and descriptive sciences must die for us to make any progress
Parsimony is a device that lets us assume as proven, certain things that if you look at the evidence fairly, are impossible.
We need to do what greats such as Einstein did - evidence indicates that the speed of light is constant despite a moving frame of reference - make that an assumption and see what the corollary is.
These following working assumptions are not proved, and have little supporting evidence. The only reason they are taken as fact is because alternative assumptions have the same issues, and are more conceptually complex.
1) non-life to life transition happened on Earth.
2) The Weismann barrier (preventing direct feedback from the environment back to DNA)
3) Modern evolutionary synthesis (micro evolution leading to macro evolution and speciation due to random mutations and selection)
4) selfish gene (decisions based on the individual, rather than group selection)
We need to do what Einstein did, and assume these are all impossible, and see what the corollary is.
Some of the conclusions I came up with - There is no reason to believe that more advanced forms of proto-life destroyed all evidence of previous forms because they would be considered food. All sorts of living things on Earth are considered food for other living things, but even with extinctions evidence is there all the way along the line from bacteria. The lack of evidence of prebiotic processes on Earth is evidence that they didn't happen on Earth.
Evolution on Earth needs random mutations no more than an engineer needs a dice to roll to make decisions on building something.
Pre-biotic evolution *does* need to rely on random mutations and selection, but the further along evolution goes, molecules may rely less and less on blind processes and more on features that made it a surviving self-catalytic species in the first place.
Working backwards from bacteria, cells appear to have evolved the capacity to lay dormant while frozen, and reactivate when thawed. This process is bound to have been the reason they ended up on Earth, and the prebiotic evolution must have been peppered with situations in which this gave a crucial competitive advantage.
We need to do what greats such as Einstein did - evidence indicates that the speed of light is constant despite a moving frame of reference - make that an assumption and see what the corollary is.
2) The Weismann barrier (preventing direct feedback from the environment back to DNA)
Some of the conclusions I came up with - There is no reason to believe that more advanced forms of proto-life destroyed all evidence of previous forms because they would be considered food. All sorts of living things on Earth are considered food for other living things, but even with extinctions evidence is there all the way along the line from bacteria. The lack of evidence of prebiotic processes on Earth is evidence that they didn't happen on Earth.
Evolution on Earth needs random mutations no more than an engineer needs a dice to roll to make decisions on building something.
Pre-biotic evolution *does* need to rely on random mutations and selection, but the further along evolution goes, molecules may rely less and less on blind processes and more on features that made it a surviving self-catalytic species in the first place.
Working backwards from bacteria, cells appear to have evolved the capacity to lay dormant while frozen, and reactivate when thawed. This process is bound to have been the reason they ended up on Earth, and the prebiotic evolution must have been peppered with situations in which this gave a crucial competitive advantage.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Comets, astrobiology, the origin of life
In Chandra Wickramasinghe's 2009 book, he mainly proposes comets as agents of transportation of panspermia cells. The prospect of billions of comets having had water for up to a million years, and larger, comet like objects even having permanent water, does lead him to believe they are also agents of the generation of the chiral precursors to life. He uses a lot of the most recent cometary findings to back up his case.
He doesn't go to the extent I have of thinking how far chemical evolution has gone in comets, whether an RNA world or DNA world could exist in a comet, and think why would it stop evolving? If it hadn't stopped, it may have got to a point where the proto-life in the comet may act in a way that may increase the chance of the "survival" of the comet, in the kind of attrition where comets are gradually getting absorbed into planets with hostile environments. Could actions by the proto life make it more likely for the comet to split up into two, where one of the fragments would be more likely to survive than if it hadn't split? Could chemical or biological action by the protolife make the outside of the comet black? Would that give the comets an alternative energy source for the middle of the comet to stay liquid (the original source being decay of Al 26 or otheer elements)? Could the emmission of particles from the gaps in the black exterior serve as ways to control the spin of the comet, or even course corrections (to avoid planets, or to get close enough for a gravity assist)? Could the emmission of particles get rid of unhelpful chemicals in a kind of metabolism?
In other words, if we can see evolution working in the environment on Earth that leads to eventual intelligent behaviour due to the needs of survival, why wouldn't this be the case for comets?
Principally, is there any evidence that the two most obvious features of life are plausibly existing for comets? That is, do they reproduce? Do they metabolise? Certainly, there is plenty of evidence that they "break up". How could we tell whether this is similar to a living cell breaking up, or a non-living rock breaking up? For metabolism, how could we tell whether the outgassing is making the outside more random and making the inside of the comet more ordered? Is it plausible that it is just outgassing a random selection of compounds that make up its interior? Could it be that it is metabolism regardless of whether the comet is a living thing?
The very high resolution images of Hale Bopp combined with ground observations of the spin and emission profile, may give us some ideas on splitting comets. The rate of rotation is not constant, and the axis of rotation is such that the two ends of the peanut shape may pull apart if it spins up to a fast enough speed. The change in rotation has been determined to be from the activity of the jets streaming out more in one direction than the other. From ground observations, the spin-up is more efficient than the spin-down. The conclusion is that the comet will eventually break up due to the centrifugal forces therein. It doesn't take much imagination to feel that it could be a rudimentary reproduction similar to amoebas.
He doesn't go to the extent I have of thinking how far chemical evolution has gone in comets, whether an RNA world or DNA world could exist in a comet, and think why would it stop evolving? If it hadn't stopped, it may have got to a point where the proto-life in the comet may act in a way that may increase the chance of the "survival" of the comet, in the kind of attrition where comets are gradually getting absorbed into planets with hostile environments. Could actions by the proto life make it more likely for the comet to split up into two, where one of the fragments would be more likely to survive than if it hadn't split? Could chemical or biological action by the protolife make the outside of the comet black? Would that give the comets an alternative energy source for the middle of the comet to stay liquid (the original source being decay of Al 26 or otheer elements)? Could the emmission of particles from the gaps in the black exterior serve as ways to control the spin of the comet, or even course corrections (to avoid planets, or to get close enough for a gravity assist)? Could the emmission of particles get rid of unhelpful chemicals in a kind of metabolism?
In other words, if we can see evolution working in the environment on Earth that leads to eventual intelligent behaviour due to the needs of survival, why wouldn't this be the case for comets?
Principally, is there any evidence that the two most obvious features of life are plausibly existing for comets? That is, do they reproduce? Do they metabolise? Certainly, there is plenty of evidence that they "break up". How could we tell whether this is similar to a living cell breaking up, or a non-living rock breaking up? For metabolism, how could we tell whether the outgassing is making the outside more random and making the inside of the comet more ordered? Is it plausible that it is just outgassing a random selection of compounds that make up its interior? Could it be that it is metabolism regardless of whether the comet is a living thing?
The very high resolution images of Hale Bopp combined with ground observations of the spin and emission profile, may give us some ideas on splitting comets. The rate of rotation is not constant, and the axis of rotation is such that the two ends of the peanut shape may pull apart if it spins up to a fast enough speed. The change in rotation has been determined to be from the activity of the jets streaming out more in one direction than the other. From ground observations, the spin-up is more efficient than the spin-down. The conclusion is that the comet will eventually break up due to the centrifugal forces therein. It doesn't take much imagination to feel that it could be a rudimentary reproduction similar to amoebas.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Comet Origins II
In continuing the theme of comets being way outside of expectations, I will discuss the ultra low albedo of the comet surface (at .02 , it is blacker than tar) Clearly organic matter is at play, perhaps in a particular texture optimized to absorb light and heat. Not only that, it appears stuck firmly onto the "snow" and doesn't disintegrate, even around the holes in the blackness, where matter ejects profusely into the corona.
It would appear that the ejection of matter of comets would satisfy one requirement of metabolism - that of making the surroundings more random. One can assume that the inside may thus become ordered and enable complexity. The edge of the comet nucleus is an analogue of a cell membrane - it lets randomness out, and importantly, can let energy in. Solar energy is absorbed by the low albedo, and any particle or clump of radioactive material would melt the snow due to its related heat, and enter into the protected part under the snow, helping to keep the water liquid, and perhaps to help power the metabolism also.
Chemical energy, would be stored analogously to life as we know it, in sugars and various other chemicals. Of course, if there is a central control to consciously pilot the comet to its future direction and gravity assists and reproduce, it needs a brain. Surely DNA, would be the brains rather than a reproductivity code, although it would need to reproduce as well.
As well as a brain, for the other observed features of "steering" requires thrust for both rotation and course adjustments, an eye/eyes to pinpoint its precise location and trajectory, and a communication/nervous system to control devices.
For the observed reproduction/ splitting, first the nucleus of the comet nucleus,ie. the heavy elements in the middle have to split up and move to opposite ends of the liquid centre. Then the comet would have to rotate around an axis such that centrifugal forces can stretch the shape. Finally, a snow fill in between the two sides for new walls, and then have two loosely connected comets until it goes close enough to a planet for tidal forces to pull the two halves away from each other and make their orbits different.
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