Unfortunately, it seems to be the "bad" guys :(.
Georgia (after being provoked by Russian interests within its borders) launched its military into an offensive and has provoked an even more disproportionate military attack from Russia. This has the unfortunate consequence of making Western-backed Georgia still look bad for "starting" it, while Russia gets a free hand due to tacit Chinese approval in the UN. A sheer reluctance from the "west" (US or anyone else) to fight a war on the Georgians behalf against Russia means that Georgians are pretty much dangerously exposed and isolated.
In China, its huge economic success of late, and the legitimacy it has gained just by staging the olympics, has resulted in fairly rampant nationalism, in which the population has started to believe that its political system is "better" than democracy. This may embolden it for otherwise unwise military adventures of its own.
2 comments:
Yes, they are right, Kosovo was a precedent for South Ossetia and Abkhazia... But South Ossetia and Akhazia are precedents for vastly more populous and economically important regions of the Russian Federation, such as Bashkortostan and Sakha...
I ought to give a full marconomic analysis of this war. Hmmm How will I fit this conflict into my game theory models...
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